赏析版2011年1-3月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集(3)

As Australia rushes to make hay, some worry that it will forget how to make everything else—an antipodean version of “Dutch disease”, in which a natural-resources boom boosts currencies and hurts manufacturing exports. In March the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union launched “Manufacturing: Australia’s Future”, a campaign demanding R&D incentives, more apprenticeships, and “buy Australian” requirements for government projects. In a February survey of manufacturing chief executives, 93% said their exports cannot compete when the Australian dollar buys more than $1. On March 31st, it bought $1.033 (see chart 2).
澳大利亚卯足了劲挖矿赚钱，以至于有人担心它已经不会干其他事了——自然资源繁荣促使货币走强，从而伤害制造业出口——澳大利亚版“荷兰病”。3月，澳大利亚制造业工会（Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union）发布了名为《制造业：澳大利亚的未来》的檄文，要求增加研发激励、推进学徒制，并敦促政府项目采取“买澳货”政策。2月的一份制造业高管显示，93%的人认为如果澳元兑美元超过1，那么他们的出口品将失去竞争力。3月31日，澳元兑美元汇率已经升至1.033（见图2）。

A strong currency is, however, necessary to keep inflation in check. As prices rise quickly in Australia’s booming industries and regions, the RBA can meet its inflation target only if prices elsewhere fall. Over the past 18 months the RBA has raised its key interest rate by 1.75 percentage points. These hikes, according to Joaquin Vespignani of Barclays Capital, have no effect on the mining industries, which sell and borrow abroad. Higher rates and a stronger currency do, however, hurt firms in manufacturing and
construction, as well as states, such as Victoria and New South Wales, where these sectors loom.
然而，强势货币乃是抵制通胀之必须。澳大利亚繁荣产业和地区的价格正在快速上涨，澳储银行要想达

到通胀目标，就只能指望其他价格有所下降。过去18个月以来，澳储银行已将关键利率提高了1.75个百分点。巴克莱资本的杰奎因?维斯皮纳尼（Joaquin Vespingnani）说，这一系列提升利率的举措并未影响到销售和融资都在海外进行的采矿业。然而高利率和强势货币却着实伤害了制造业和建筑业，后两者的萎靡又影响到了维多利亚和新南威尔士等州。
In principle the RBA could change its inflation target, ignoring prices in the mining state of Western Australia and perhaps the Northern Territory. One outside economist even floated the idea with the RBA. “They just started talking about cricket,” he said.
原则上，澳大利亚储备银行可以改变其通胀目标，忽视矿业发达的西澳大利亚州（或许还包括北地）的价格。一位外部经济学家甚至支持澳大利亚储备银行的想法。“他们已经开始谈论板球了。”他说。

One reason may be that Australia is close to full employment. The jobless rate is 5% and projected to fall. In the past firms would import labour. But Australia’s economic recovery has coincided with an ill-timed tightening of immigration policy: it admitted 36% fewer net newcomers in the year to September 2010 compared with the previous year. If the country is fully employed, its boom industries cannot grow unless other industries shrink. No tinkering with monetary policy will change that.
一个理由或许是澳大利亚处于接近充分就业的状态。失业率为5%，且预计将进一步下降。过去如果遇到这种情况，企业会进口劳动力。但这回澳大利亚的经济复苏时机不合时宜地正好赶上移民政策收紧：在截止2010年9月的一年中，澳大利亚净新增移民数量同比减少36%。如果澳大利亚保持充分就业状态，那么某些产业的繁荣就必须以其他产业的萧条为代价。这一点无法通过货币政策魔法改变。

Australia could bring some relief to squeezed exporters by saving, not spending, the proceeds of the boom. That would reduce the inflationary pressure at home, resulting in lower interest rates and a cheaper exchange rate. Households are doing their bit, saving 9.7% of their disposable income compared with less than zero in 2004. The government is also tightening its belt, albeit more gingerly. Having run a budget deficit of 4.4% of GDP in the last fiscal year, it expects a surplus in the fiscal year ending on June 30th 2013, including the proceeds from a mining tax.
如果澳大利亚将繁荣带来的收入储蓄起来而不是花掉，倒是可以让饱受挤压的出口部门喘一口气。那样可以释放国内通胀压力，促使利率和汇率下降。澳大利亚的家庭已经做出了自己的贡献——储蓄已经占到了家庭可支配收入的9.7%，而2004年这一数字还不到零。政府也在收紧支出，但更为谨慎。上一个财年，澳大

利亚的预算赤字占GDP比重为4.4%，预期到2013年6月30日结束的财年，澳大利亚将实现盈余（其中包括了矿产税带来的收入）。

Should it tighten its belt faster? In Chile a fiscal law obliges the government to run budget surpluses whenever the economy is at full employment and the copper price is above its long-run equilibrium, as estimated by an independent panel. A similar rule in Australia would imply a budget surplus of 2% this year, argues Mr McKibbin.
政府应该加大缩减开支力度吗？智利的财政法要求政府在经济处于充分就业且铜价处于长期均衡价格（由独立委员会进行估算）之上时必须保持预算盈余。若澳大利亚出台相似的法律，则今年的预算必须有2%的盈余，麦克基宾说。

Chile’s government adds to a “stabilisation fund” in fat years, and withdraws from it in lean. Australia has its own Future Fund, where it sets aside money to pay for the pensions of public-sector workers. But Mr McKibbin is not alone in thinking that Australia should have its own sovereign-wealth fund to invest money overseas, like Norway’s huge fund.
在繁荣年份，智利政府会将钱存入“稳定基金”中，在萧条年份则动用基金中的钱。澳大利亚也有自己的未来基金，其公共部门员工的养老金就出自该基金。但包括麦克基宾在内的不少人认为澳大利亚应该像挪威那样成立一个主权财富基金进行海外投资。

Should the government do more than get out of the way of the boom? One traditional fix is tariffs and subsidies, which can offset an uncompetitive exchange rate. The government recently imposed fresh anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports of sodium bicarbonate, for example, at the request of Penrice Soda Holdings, Australia’s sole producer of soda-ash crystals, which appear in ev …… 此处隐藏：4882字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……