赏析版2011年1-3月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集(2)

好像这情况还不够严重似的，位于法兰克福的欧洲央行似乎打算于4月7日提高利率，这将使得欧元更加坚挺，并将在未来一点一点的破坏外围成员国对于让出口更加富有竞争力的努力。一些政治家仍在推行诸如强迫爱尔兰提升其公司税率的愚蠢的要求，这将阻断其发展的最佳路径。不过，危害更大的是，欧元区救援机制所用的逻辑颠倒混乱。 欧洲的领袖们不同意当下就开始削减债务，力主只有到了2013年之后需要救援的国家才可以在那时作债务重组。他们也力主官方贷款将享受比私人债券持有者更优先的条件。因此，私人债券投资者两年后可能面临的削价融资风险 就使得今天的债券收益率居高不下，这就反过来让救援计划受挫。

Home truths from Washington
来自华盛顿邮报的诤言。

This newspaper has argued that Greece, Ireland and Portugal need their debt burdens cut sooner rather than later. That case is stronger than ever, not only because today’s approach is failing but because the risks of restructuring are falling. The spectre of contagion is receding. Spain, whose bond yields have fallen and whose spreads with Germany have tightened, has distanced itself from Portugal. Behind the scenes, sovereign-debt specialists are devising ways to minimise the impact of an “orderly restructuring” on banks. Most banks in the core of the euro zone can withstand a hit from the three small peripherals.
这份报纸认为希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙需要即刻而不是以后削减他们的债务负担。情况如今更加迫在眉睫，并不是因为现在的途经是错误的，而是因为现在重组的风险在降低，蔓延的恐惧正在消逝。西班牙的债券收益率已经下降，跟德国债券收益率的率差也已缩小，已跟葡萄牙拉出了距离。与此同时，主权债务专家也在幕后紧锣密鼓地设计方案来减少“有序重组”对银行的冲击。处于欧元区核心国家的大多数银行扛得住来自这些外围小国的冲击。

The big obstacle is not technical but political. Since many at Europe’s core, particularly the ECB, remain implacably opposed to debt restructuring, the pressure has to come from elsewhere—not least from the peripheral economies themselves. Ireland’s new government is talking about forcing the senior bondholders of its bust banks to take a hit. Greece should stop pretending that it can bear its current debt burden and push for r
estructuring. But the best hope lies with the IMF. Its economists have the most experience of debt crises. Some privately acknowledge that debt

restructuring is ultimately inevitable. It is time the Fund’s top brass said so publicly and, by refusing to lend more without a deal on debt, pushed Europe’s pusillanimous politicians into doing the right thing.
最大的阻碍来自政治层面而非技术层面。由于许多处于欧洲的核心的国家，特别是欧洲央行，仍然坚决的反对债务重组，因此，必须通过其它方面，尤其是这些外围成员国自己来施加压力。爱尔兰的新政府正在讨论迫使那些大量持有破产银行债券的人承受这个冲击。希腊应该停止假装可以承受其流动债务负担并推行重组。但是最大的希望就寄托在国际货币基金组织上。其经济学家在处理债务危机方面有着最丰富的经验。国际货币基金组织的一些经济学家私下表示，债务重组最终将无法避免。是让国际货币基金组织高层对此公开表示，并且通过拒绝借更多钱给尚未处理债务问题的国家，来促使欧洲那些谨小慎微的政治家做正确的事情了的时候。

金融小知识：
Haircut
Haircut. A haircut, in the financial industry, is a percentage discount that's applied informally to the market value of a stock or the face value of a bond in an attempt to account for the risk of loss that the investment poses.
So, for example, a stock with a market value of $30 may get a haircut of 20%, to $24, when an analyst or money manager tries to anticipate what is likely to happen to the price.
这里的剃头表示的意思是投资人所拥有的债券价格届时掉了价， 蚀本了。
市场上， 未必要等到将来的事情发生， 只要有“预期”， “风险大了”， 债券的现值就丢了。 如果此时将这些被剃头的债券拿去抵押借款， 100元面值只能借到80元， 这里的剃头程度就是20%。 这又称削价融资。
/thread-46874-1-1.html 译者：wang_xiao_di

[2011.03.31]Everybody needs good neighbours给力莫如好邻居
Petri-dish economies
培养皿经济

Everybody needs good neighbours给力莫如好邻居

In the first of a series on economies that exemplify global trends, we look at Australia’s commodity boom全球趋势代表巡礼——从澳洲商品繁荣开始
Mar 31st 2011 | ADELAIDE | from the print edition
AN 1838 account of Port Adelaide in South Australia described it as Port Misery, unsurpassed in “everything that is wretched and inconvenient.” That seems like a long time ago. The port is now full of the things Australia grows and the things it digs up. A bumper crop waits in the port’s grain silos. Mineral sands, such as zircon, sit under a tarpaulin. Iron ore, set to become
Australia’s biggest export, fills scores of blue containers on the wharf side.
1838年，南澳大利亚州阿德莱德港的一位会计将它称为“苦难之港”，“任何不幸和不快”都超不过它。斗转星移，如今的阿德莱德港装满了

从澳大利亚长出来和挖出来的东西。谷物在谷仓中堆积如山。油布覆盖着锆石之类矿产。在靠近码头一侧，一个又一个蓝色集装箱装满了澳大利亚命中注定的最大出口品——铁矿石。

Five years ago a shipload of iron ore bought 2,200 flatscreen TVs, says Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Now it buys 22,000. The terms of Australia’s trade—the price of its exports, relative to the cost of its imports—have improved by 42% since 2004. Commodity booms have come and gone in Australia’s history but no boom this strong has lasted this long (see chart 1).
五年前，一船铁矿石价值与2 200台平板电视相当，澳大利亚储备银行（澳储银行）行长格伦?史蒂文斯（Glenn Stevens）说。如今，一船铁矿石可以买22 000台平板电视。自2004年以来，澳大利亚的贸易条件（即出口品价格与进口品成本的比值）改善了42%。商品盛衰周期在澳大利亚历史上屡见不鲜，但没有一次繁荣能向这次一样强劲、持续时间如此之长（见图1）。

Over the coming weeks, The Economist will profile several economies at the centre of wider global trends. The first is Australia, a bellwether for other rich commodity exporters such as Norway, where the terms of trade have improved by 38% …… 此处隐藏：4531字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……