创业板首批上市公司业绩综合分析

河南财经政法大学本科生毕业论文

创业板首批上市公司业绩综合分析

院系名称 姓 名 学 号 专 业 指导教师

统 计 学 系 杨 化 云 20064110144 统 计 学 李 霞 讲 师

2010年05月31日

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摘 要

从2009年3月底中国创业板的明确设立到10月底首批28家公司在深交所创业板挂牌上市，创业板上市公司的业绩状况备受瞩目。在回顾上市公司业绩分析文献的基础上，从财务报告的角度，构建了上市公司经营业绩的综合评价体系。选取深圳证券交易所首批28家创业板企业为研究对象，采用因子分析法与聚类分析法，对其2009年度的业绩进行了综合分析。首先对选取对象的12个基本指标进行主成分提取和因子旋转，确定代表财务效益状况、资产质量状况、偿债风险状况、发展能力状况的四个公共因子，计算因子得分和排名。将四个公共因子进行样品聚类，得出具有经济意义的优劣区分。在财务分析的基础上，对公司所属行业和地区进行简单基本分析，以便更加了解公司特点及核心竞争力。投资者可根据自身投资喜好选择特定股票进行投资，以减少非系统性风险，获取更大收益。

关键词：创业板；业绩；因子分析；聚类分析

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Abstract

People have been paying close attention to the performances of the companies listed on the ChiNext of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, from ChiNext’s establishment at the end of March 2009 to 28 companies’ first listing on the ChiNext at the end of October 2009. Based on the researches about the performances of listed companies, the evaluation system of listed companies’ performances is established from the point of financial reports. This paper studied 28 companies that first listed on the ChiNext, introduced factor analysis and cluster analysis methods, discussed their performances in 2009. Firstly, this paper extracted 4 common factors from the 12 basic variables, which could represent the companies’ performances, asset qualities, solvency and development capacity, then calculated the scores and ranks of those factors. Secondly, this paper applied sample clustering to the 4 common factors, then distinguished their economic significance. Thirdly, based on the above financial analysis，this paper did some fundamental analysis on the industries and the regions of the companies, to gain more knowledge about their features and competitive advantages. Investors may choose right stocks based on this research and their own habits, so as to reduce nonsystematic risks and earn more profits.

Key Words: ChiNext; performances; factor analysis; cluster analysis

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目 录

引 言 .............................................................. 1 （一）研究背景 .................................................... 1 （二）国内外研究现状 .............................................. 1

1．国内上市公司业绩的研究状况 ................................. 1 2．国内创业板的研究状况 ....................................... 2 3．国内创业板上市公司业绩的研究状况 ........................... 2 （三）研究目的和意义 .............................................. 2 （四）研究方法 .................................................... 2 一、模型概述与评价指标体系的构建 .................................... 3 （一）模型概述 .................................................... 3

1．因子分析模型 ............................................... 3 2．聚类分析 ................................................... 3 （二）评价指标体系的构建 .......................................... 3

1．体系的基本框架 ............................................. 3 2．修改后的体系框架 ........................................... 4

二、基于因子分析模型的绩效综合评价 .................................. 4 （一）样本数据的选取与处理 ........................................ 4 （二）评价指标的无量纲化处理 ...................................... 7 （三）公共因子个数的确定与解释 .................................... 8 （四）因子得分与排名 ............................................. 10 三、基于因子得分上的聚类分析 ....................................... 12 （一）聚类的过程 ................................................. 12 （二）聚类的经济意义解释 ......................................... 13

1．四家排名最前的公司 ........................................ 13 2．业绩良好的公司 ............................................ 13 3．业绩一般的公司 ............................................ 13 4．业绩较差的公司 ............................................ 14

四、28家公司基本分析 .............................................. 14 （一）行业分布 ................................................... 14

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