2010年中国中国婴幼儿配方奶粉行业研究报告

元大的报告

China: Food Products Top recommendations

Ausnutria Dairy (1717 HK); BUY –

target price of HK$7.80.

What’s new?

We initiate coverage of the

China infant formula industry Dairy shares.

We provide an in-depth

analysis of the China infant formula industry.

with a BUY rating on Ausnutria

Industry Initiation

May 4, 2010

Industry outlook

Infant formula consumption will

be driven by penetration rate rather than per capita consumption.

Both premium and mainstream

infant formula demand will drive total consumption.

Charles Z. Yan CFA +852 3969 9530

charles.yan@http://doc.guandang.net

China Infant Formula Industry

The land of Milk & Money

Initiate coverage on the China infant formula industry: We initiate coverage on the China infant formula industry with a BUY rating on Ausnutria and a target price of HK$7.80, which implies 44% upside. China’s infant formula industry – the party is just beginning: Infant

formula consumption in China continues to grow. We forecast that the infant formula market in China will experience a CAGR of 20% in 2010-14F, with market value increasing to at least RMB64 bn in

TP N.A N.A N.A HK$30.0N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A

Ticker SEHK:171

Rating

Sarah Liu + 86 21 6187 3822

sarahliu@http://doc.guandang.net lukeqian@http://doc.guandang.net

Luke Qian + 86 21 6187 3821

Company Ausnutria Dairy* Nestlé S.A.

2014F from RMB30 bn in 2009. We believe total consumption will be driven by an increase in both volume and ASP.

We expect leading players to enjoy healthy margins from 2010

onwards: We note that leading infant formula players in China not only have longer-term contracts with raw milk powder providers but also operate at a higher level of efficiency than mid- and small-sized regional players. Therefore, leading players are usually able to thanks to better controls against cost inflation.

maintain gross and operating margins at stable and healthy levels Doctors are the key marketing target: We see OTC pharmacy and

doctors’ recommendations as the key in influencing parents’ purchasing decisions. International brands have been more focused on marketing to doctors, while domestic brands are increasing their focus on this important marketing target.

Consolidation, which leads to higher valuations, is inevitable in the

next few years: Although we believe the high-end premium infant formula market will experience higher growth than the mainstream, we note that this segment is getting crowded and is dominated by five leading international brands with a combined market share of over gain share or to acquire other leading domestic brands.

70%. We expect these brands to either launch mainstream brands to BUY Ausnutria: Our TP of HK$7.80 is derived from the average of 1) 2011F EPS of HK$0.43, with 28% earnings CAGR in 2010–14F.

SWX:NESNot Rated

RatedN.A Mead Johnson Nutrition NYSE:MJNot RatedSaputo, Inc. China Mengniu Dairy Parmalat SpA

Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods Inner Mongolia Yili Dean Foods Co. Glanbia plc

Beijing Sanyuan Foods Emmi AG

Dairy Crest Group plc American Dairy Inc.

TSX:SAP Not RatedSEHK:231

BUY

CM:PLT Not RatedNYSE:WBNot RatedSHSE:600Not RatedNYSE:DF Not RatedISE:GL9 Not RatedSHSE:600Not RatedSWX:EMNot RatedLSE:DCG Not RatedNYSE:ADNot Rated

Robert Wiseman Dairies LSE:RWD Not Rated

Source: Yuanta Research

forward PER; and 2) DCF analysis. We forecast 2010F EPS of HK$0.35 and

ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 66

Yuanta does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should

元大的报告

Table of contents

Executive summary...............................................................................................3 Infant formula, a RMB64 bn market by 2014..........................................................7 Leading players see margin expansion................................................................13 All about distribution, not just the formula..........................................................16 Consolidation inevitable in 2010.........................................................................19 Shortage of raw milk won’t last forever................................................................25 Risks to the China infant formula market.............................................................28

Ausnutria Dairy (1717 HK)............................................................30

Investment thesis................................................................................................31 Valuation............................................................................................................33 Premium infant formula – outpacing overall industry growth................................40 Ausnutria: Well-positioned in the premium infant formula sector........................42 Earnings and operating outlook...........................................................................44 The golden lining for top-line growth..................................................................47 Mild margin expansion in 2010-14F...................................................................53 Marketing and distribution..................................................................................57 Financial strength...............................................................................................60 Risks to our investment thesis... …… 此处隐藏：37425字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……