2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook(3)

年以来，中央政府出台了一系列不断升级的房 market was further subject to strict macro-level controls地产调控措施–capital conditions and accelerated that led to tighter限购、限贷、保障房、房产税 consolidation. By year-end 2011, the balance of real等，已初步实现了对土地供应、银行信贷、机 estate loans from financial institutions in the banking构监管和产业政策等方面的控制。2011年， industry was 10.73 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.6房地产市场遭遇严格宏观调控，弱势下行；房 percent of all loans.7 Industry insiders estimate that bank地产企业资金紧张，整合加速。截止 2011年末， risk related to the real estate industry will银行业金融机构房地产贷款余额为further increase 10.73万亿 several times over. 7

二、银行应把握房地产市场走势，积极应对潜在信贷风险The National Bureau of Statistics (as shown in Figure 2) reported that nationwide investment in real estate development was 6,174 billion yuan as of year-end 2011. Although this represents an increase of 27.9 percent compared with the same period the previous year, the rate of growth fell each month from August through December.

元，占各项贷款的比重为 19.6%,但据业内人士估测，加上其它形式或渠道流向房地产行 The real estate market is showing weakness under业的隐性贷款，金融机构对房地产行业贷款的 stricter real estate policy regulation and controls, and敞口将成倍增长。 market growth is slowing.

27.9%,增速已连续 5个月下滑。1-12月，全国商品房销售面积 in the亿平方米，同比上 The same trend is reflected10.99 land market as well,升 4.9%,升幅较 1-11commodity property sold where the cash amount for月下降 3.6个百分点；全国商品房销售金额 59,119亿元，同比上升 throughout China was 5,911.9 billion yuan. The cash amount,升幅较 1-11月下降 3.9个百分点 8。 12.1% represents an increase of 12.1 percent over the same period the prior year.同时，土地市场也不容乐观。中国指数研究院的数据显示，全国土地市场 2012年 2月仍延 According to the China Index Academy, the national续前期的低迷状态，市场供应乏力，全国 300 land market in February 2012 was also down. Market个城市的土地供应量环比、同比均有下滑。全 supply was weak and the sales volume of land in 300国 300个城市共推出土地 2,023宗，环比减少 cities nationwide dropped both in comparison with the 28%,同比减少 27%;推出土地面积 8,555万 previous month and in comparison with the same9 period平方米，环比减少 28%,同比减少 29%。 the previous year. In 300 cities throughout China, 2,023total parcels of land were put on the market, a drop of

Annual commodity property sold countrywide in 2011在严格的房地产政策调控下，房地产

市场已 was 1,099 billion square meters, an increase of 4.9经呈现弱势下行的局面，并且有很大可能在 percent over the same period the prior year. While 2012年上半年持续。国家统计局发布的数据 property sales are positive, the increase in sales shrank by显示(如图 2)截止到 2011年 12月底，, 3.6 percentage points when compared with the growth全国房地产开发投资 61,740亿元，同比增长 rate from January through November.8

图2 2007年1Estate2011年12月房地产投资及销售增速 January 2007 to December 2011 Figure 2. Real月– Investment and Sales Growth Rates from100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.006

–– –– Real estate development investment completion percentage:

房地产开发投资完成比额：累计同比% cumulative% in comparison with the same period of the previous year商品房销售额：累计同比%comparison with the same period of the previous year

––n–– Area of commodity property sold: cumulativeprevious year

商品房销售面积：累计同比 period of the% in comparison with the same%

–––– Commodity property sales volume: cumulative% in

China Banking Association,“China Banker Investigation Report 2011”, October 26, 2011. People’s Bank of China,“2011 Financial Institution Loan Investment Orientation Statistical Report”, January 30, 2012. National Bureau of Statistics, Wind Information.

0.00 -20.00 -40.00

6

中国银行业协会，行家调查报告201年10月26日

2010-05

2010-07

2010-09

2010-11

2011-02

2011-04

2011-06

2011-08

2011-10

2007-02

2007-04

2007-06

2007-08

2007-10

2007-12

2008-03

2008-05

2008-07

2008-09

2008-11

2009-02

2009-04

2009-06

2009-08

2009-10

2009-12

2011-12

2010-03

7

7

中国人民银行，《金融机构贷款投告》 2012年1月，

8

数据来源：国家统计局，Wind资讯

Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Wind Information

8 9

国家统计局，Win

4

中国指数研究院，年2月全国300个城市场交易情报》, 3月11日， http://fdc.soufun. report/5050.html

2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

28 percent when compared with the previous month, 98 percent of personal mortgage loans is currently lower

and a decrease of 27 percent when compared with the than 80 percent. The average debt repayment to income

same period the previous year. The area of the land on ratio for mortgage loans is 33 percent, and the average

the market was 85.55 million square meters, down 28 collateral ratio for development loans has reached 189

percent when compared with the previous month and percent. In addition, the non-performing loan ratio for

by 29 percent when compared with the same period the real estate loans issued by banks, including rural credit

previous year.9 institutions, is below 2 percent, and may be trending

downward in many regions.12

With the real estate market depressed, the financial

status of real estate enterprises may be of concern. Some insiders in the banking industry have pointed out

Based on the reports released by various listed real that there are various types of loans that have not been

estate companies, by the end of the third quarter 2011, issued as real estate loans, but ultimately have flowed

operating cash flows were negative for 70 percent of to the rea …… 此处隐藏：5283字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……