2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

2012 China Banking Industry 2012年中国银行业 Top Ten Trends and Outlook十大趋势与展望 Enhancing Capital Management,提升资本管理迎接新的挑战 Meeting New Challenges

Deloitte China Financial Services Industry Center of Excellence德勤中国金融服务业卓越中心

2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

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2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

Introduction

Profits in the Chinese banking industry were considerable in 2011.

The industry performed well despite the performance of the Chinese

economy overall, which is mired in a downturn. The China Banking

Regulatory Commission (CBRC) reported that banking industry assets

reached 113.28 trillion yuan by year-end 2011, a 19 percent increase

compared to the prior year. In 2011, annual net profits for Chinese

commercial banks were 1,041.20 billion yuan, a 36 percent increase

compared to 2010. Net interest income for 2011 was 2.15 trillion yuan,

up 29 percent compared to the same period the previous year.

Although bank profits are high, the capital market performance of Chinese commercial banks has suffered. Share

prices and valuations have been low for some time, reflecting global uncertainty with the continued deterioration of

the European debt crisis as well as the pressure brought on the quality of bank assets associated with local financing

platforms and real estate loans.

Looking forward to 2012, the domestic and overseas macroeconomic and financial environments remain highly

unstable. Risk in the European banking system may further shrink deposits and curtail lending in the region.

International rating agencies have already downgraded the ratings of many European banks, and the banking

industry in Europe is in a recession. In the United States, a sustained loss of investor confidence in the banking system

following the onset of the 2008 financial crisis has led to financing difficulties.

At the national working conference in January 2012, the CBRC reported that banks in China are “still at an important

stage of strategic opportunity” for reform and development. The complicated operating environment and intense

competition will continue, forcing the industry to shore up key controls and mitigate credit, liquidity and other risks.

Close to two trillion yuan of local debt will mature in 2012. With real estate regulation and control policies in place,

banks will need to understand the risks this debt retirement will have on the industry. In addition, multiple factors will

threaten the quality of bank assets, such as the impact of tightened monetary policy on liquidity and operating risk

from private loans and shadow banking. Local government financing platform loans further affect risks that must be

managed effectively to support ongoing growth.

In this research report, Deloitte China financial services industry and banking industry experts discuss the top 10

most influential topics facing the Chinese banking system in the next two to three years. The report discusses the

risk of local government financing platforms; real estate credit risk; commercial bank financing for small and medium

enterprises; rural financial system reform; the globalization of Chinese banks; mobile banking and mobile financial

services; emerging private banking businesses; competition and cooperation with foreign banks; shadow banking

and private loans; and the influence of Basel III and the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 – Financial

Instruments on the banking industry.

In this analysis of the Chinese banking industry, we have collected and processed large volumes of data and refer to

the opinions of relevant experts. At the same time, we provide an outlook of developmental trends in the banking

industry. We hope this report will serve as the starting point for further dialogue both within and outside the banking

industry, and among all who must work together to respond to the challenges and risks in the financial markets and

overall economic environment.

2012 China Banking Industry Top Ten Trends and Outlook—Enhancing Capital Management, Meeting New Challenges1

2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

I. Risks for一、地方政府融资平台风险可控， local government financing platforms are controllable但银行的不良贷款率将温和上升 but banks’ non-performing loan ratios on the riseLocal governments raise financing through a variety of approaches including platforms, and have achieved positive results in promoting economic and social development from these financial platforms, particularly地方政府通过平台等多种方式融资，在推动经 in public infrastructure construction. An estimated济与社会发展特别是公共基础建设方面取得了 80 percent of the debt held by local government积极成果。据测算，在我国地方政府投融资平 investment and financing platforms in China was台的负债中，80%bank credit. Despite management originally obtained as都是通过银行信贷

获得资金。由于地方政府融资平台存在管理不规范不 and other risks, much can be done to control loan risks审慎、监督机制缺失等问题，也埋下了一些风 of local government platforms in China, including: promoting the reformation of the national and local险隐患。但整体来说，我国地方政府平台贷款 debt management system; clarifying financial allocations风险基本可控；可是要真正化解地方政府性债 among various levels of government; improving the local务风险，还得深入推进国家和地方债务管理体 finance and taxation system; and actively expanding制改革，进一步理顺各级政府间的财政分配关 financing channels.系，健全地方财税体系，并积极拓宽融资渠道。 The volume of资平台贷款规模巨大，地方政府融 loans on local government financing至 2011 platforms …… 此处隐藏：5335字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……