2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook(2)

图1 2010年底全国地方政府性债务偿债年度分布 Figure 1. Annual Distribution of debts due by local governements as of the end of 20103.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Unit: Trillion Yuan单位：万亿元

3.2

政府负有偿还责任的债务 n Debts payable by local政府负有担保责任的债务 governments其他相关债务 n Debts guaranteed by local governments n Other relevant local government debts

2.6 1.8 1.2 1.0

0.8

2011 2011年

2012 2012年

2013 2013年

2014 2014年

2015 2016 and later 2015年 2016年及以后

Data Source: National Audit Office, Announcement No. 35, June 27, 2011

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National Audit Office, Announcement No. 35 of 2011, June 27, 2011 National Bureau of Statistics, Wind Information

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资料来源：国家审计署，2011年第35号公告，2011年6月27日 Although risk surrounding local government financing In recent years, nationwide fiscal revenue has also platform loans is controllable, non-performing loan ratios grown at a high rate. Nationwide, fiscal revenue in 2010 at banks are expected to rise in 2012; non-performing increased by 21.3 percent compared to the same period能力不断提高。近年来，全国财政收入继续保预计 2012年，地方政府融资平台贷款风险基 loans are not, however, expected to develop into large the previous year.2 At the same time, among the large持高速增长，2010 rights formed by expenditures of本可控，但银行的不良贷款率将有所上升。地年全国财政收入同比增长 balances of bad debts. The smooth, stable and rapid volumes of ownership方政府融资平台贷款虽然存在着潜在风险，但 21.3%2。同时，我国地方政府支出所形成的大 development of China’s economy remains unchanged, local governments in China, many belong to effective并不会演化成大规模的坏账。从偿债条件看，量权属中，有许多属于有效资产，具有一定的 and local fiscal revenue is stable on the whole, which assets and are cashable to a certain degree. Collectively,我国经济平稳较快发展的总体趋势未变，地变现能力。这些都有利于改善偿债条件。根据 both provide support for loan repayment. The ability of these factors reflect improvements in conditions for debt方财政收入总体稳定。从中长期来看，我国各银监会数据显示，商业银行的不良贷款率有所 various levels of government in China to meet mid- to repayment. According to the CBRC, the non-performin

g级政府通过自身的经济发展和财力增长，偿债上升。2011年末，商业银行不良贷款率余额 long-term debt repayment will continue to improve loan ratio of commercial banks has risen somewhat. At through their own economic development efforts and year-end 2011, the balance of non-performing loans at financial growth. commercial banks was 427.90 billion yuan, and was up

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国家审计署，2011年号公告，2011年6月2

2

国家统计局，Wind资

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2012 China Banking Industry - Top ten trends and outlook

20.1 billion yuan compared to non-performing loans the will indubitably face the pressure created by a suddenly

prior quarter. The rise in non-performing loans bumped tightened capital chain.

up the non-performing loan ratio slightly to 1.0 percent,

but it is still below the 1.1 percent ratio the previous year. In addition, a considerable number of platform loans are

Doubtful and subordinated credits made up the vast in land mortgages and pledges. Therefore, the majority

majority of non-performing loans. Among various types of repayments rely on land assessment revenues, which

of commercial banks, the non-performing loan ratios for are depressed and not expected to rebound anytime

rural commercial banks and large commercial banks were soon. With less land assessment revenue coming in, the

1.6 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, and were both debt repayment ability of such financing platforms will

higher than the average level.3 At the same time, the decrease, and it is probable that the asset quality of the

rating agency Moody’s evaluated the bank loans in local credits will deteriorate.

government debts, and predicted that 8 to 12 percent of

total loans may become non-performing loans.4 The minimization of risk in local financing platform loans

is a long-term process that is dependent on further

There are two main reasons that loans default from local progress being made to:

government financing platforms. First, local government Promote the reformation of the national and local

revenues and expenditures do not match. In 2010, debt management system;

fiscal revenues of local governments accounted for Allocate debt among various levels of government

48.9 percent of nationwide fiscal revenue, but assumed based on financial capacity, duties and responsibilities;

82.2 percent of nationwide fiscal expenditures. The Improve local finance and taxation systems;

local financial deficit climbed as high as 3,327.1 billion Control the actions of local governments in incurring

yuan, and national funds accounted for 82 percent of debt and undertaking guarantees;

local fiscal revenue. Because local government financing Monitor and control debts associated with local

platform loans generally involve large amounts and long governments;

terms, and certain difficulties exist in supervising their Clean up and standardize financing platform

use, close attention needs to be paid to the risks for companies;

credit default. Establish open, clear and complete government

balance sheets; and,

Second, as disclosed in the PBOC report, 70 percent Design a direct financing mechanism with market

of the more than 10,000 financing platforms were restrictions on such basis.5

scattered among county-level governments, which

have the tightest financial resources among all levels In 2012, we expect to see banks supporting management

of government. Under relatively high liquidity restraints efforts by local financing platforms to minimize …… 此处隐藏：5608字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……