CPI、货币供给量、股指关系建模分析4(7)

Aug-96 108.1 107.4 107 106.9 Dec-96 107 105.9 105.6 104 Apr-97 103.2 102.8 102.8 102.7 Aug-97 101.9 101.8 101.5 101.1 Dec-97 100.4 100.3 99.9 100.7 Apr-98 99.7 99 98.7 98.6 Aug-98 98.6 98.5 98.9 98.9 Dec-98 99 98.8 98.7 98.2 Apr-99 97.8 97.8 97.9 98.6 Aug-99 98.7 99.2 99.4 99.1 Dec-99 99 99.8 100.7

99.8

72309 809.94 69643 875.53 73152.2 976.71 74142 1032.95 76094.9 917.02 78648 964.74 78998 1040.27 79889 1234.62 80818 1393.75 81151 1285.18 82789 1250.27 83460 1189.76 84746 1221.06 85892 1097.38 86644 1180.39 87590 1139.63 90995.3 1194.1 92211.4 1222.91 92024 1206.53 92015 1243.02 92662 1343.45 93936 1411.21 94658 1339.2 96314 1316.92 97299 1150.22 99795 1242.9 100875.2 1217.32 102229 1247.42 104498.5 1146.7 105500 1134.67 107778 1090.09 108438 1158.05 109218 1120.93 110061 1279.33 111363 1689.43 111414 1601.46 112827 1627.12 115079 1570.7 115390 1504.56 116559 1434.97 119897.9 1366.58 121220.4 1535 121583.4 1714.58 122606.82

1800.23

8093.35 25729.45 8409 26230 8405 26798.2 8705 27422 8802 28514.8 11493 30573 10080 29103 9282 29058 9277 29991 9066 30275 9122 31074 9127 31100 9327 31594.99 9426 32245 9489 32422 9784.58 32909 10177.6 34826.3 13108.4 35585.6 10886.06 33395 10201.04 33110 10173 33360 9984.4 33553 9720.44 33776 10037.4 34356 10129.07 35050 10528 36501 10501.3 36786.7 10671 37414 11204.2 38953.7 11997 39011 12784 38749 11342 38054 11225 38053 10889 38004 10881 38822 11199 38991 11395 40095 12255 41914 12154 42265 12483 43370 13455.5 45837.3 16093.9 46570.1 13983 44679.2 13235.4

45158.45

31

Apr-00 99.7 100.1 100.5 100.5 Aug-00 100.3 100 100 101.3 Dec-00 101.5 101.2 100 100.8 Apr-01 101.6 101.7 101.4 101.5 Aug-01 101 99.9 100.2 99.7 Dec-01 99.7 99 100 99.2 Apr-02 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.1 Aug-02 99.3 99.3 99.2 99.3 Dec-02 99.6 100.4 100.2 100.9 Apr-03 101 100.7 100.3 100.5 Aug-03 100.9 101.1 101.8

103

124121.87 1836.32 124053.25 1894.55 126605.33 1928.11 126323.92 2023.54 127790.3 2021.2 130473.84 1910.16 129522.44 1961.29 130994.07 2070.61 134610.26 2073.48 137543.63 2065.61 136210.17 1959.18 138744.46 2112.78 139949.85 2119.18 139015.84 2214.26 147809.67 2218.03 149228.73 1920.32 149941.76 1834.14 151822.6 1764.87 151497.25 1689.17 154088.3 1747.99 158301.92 1645.97 159639.27 1491.67 160935.59 1524.7 164064.57 1603.91 164570.56 1667.75 166023 1515.73 169601.24 1732.76 170851.14 1651.59 173250.92 1666.62 176985.21 1581.62 177294.15 1507.5 179736.26 1434.18 185006.97 1357.65 190545.05 1499.81 190108.41 1511.93 194487.3 1510.58 196130.13 1521.44 199505.19 1576.26 204907.42 1486.02 206193.07 1476.74 210591.9 1421.98 213567.13 1367.16 214469.36 1348.3 216351.73

1397.22

13675.5 46319.03 13075.45 46490.23 13006.04 48024.4 13156.47 47803.09 13378.68 48885.38 13894.69 50616.89 13589.45 49952.84 13877.7 50787.49 14652.65 53147.15 17018.98 54406.23 14910.39 51997.68 14362.12 53033.36 14622.99 53261.32 13942.28 52542.99 13943.44 55187.36 14071.62 53502.8 14370.13 55808.92 15064.6 56824 14484.61 56114.9 14780 56579.6 15688.8 59871.59 16725.89 60576.06 16641.55 58702.87 15544.63 59474.83 15864.18 60461.31 15243.07 61246.86 15097.35 63144 15357.66 63487.78 15712.61 64868.83 16233.58 66799.76 16014.66 67100.25 16346.39 67992.78 17278.03 70881.79 21244.73 72405.66 17937.17 69756.64 17106.5 71438.82 17441.14 71321.24 17115.03 72777.84 16956.89 75923.23 17362.13 76152.77 17606.76 77032.98 18306.36 79163.88 18250.67 80267.1 18439.56

80814.93

32

Dec-03 103.2 103.2 102.1 103 Apr-04 103.8 104.4 105 105.3 Aug-04 105.3 105.2 104.3 102.8 Dec-04 102.4 101.9 103.9 102.7 Apr-05 101.8 101.8 101.6 101.8 Aug-05 101.3 100.9 101.2 101.3 Dec-05 101.6 101.9 100.9 100.8 Apr-06 101.2 101.4 101.5 101 Aug-06 101.3 101.5 101.4 101.9 Dec-06 102.8 102.2 102.7 103.3 Apr-07 103 103.4 104.4

105.6

221222.82 1497.04 225101.93 1590.73 227050.72 1675.07 231654.6 1741.62 233627.86 1595.59 234842.4 1555.91 238427.49 1399.16 238126.97 1386.2 239729.19 1342.06 243756.88 1396.7 243740.32 1320.54 247135.58 1340.77 253207.7 1266.5 257708.47 1191.82 259357.29 1306 264588.94 1181.24 266992.66 1159.15 269240.49 1060.74 275785.53 1080.94 276966.28 1083.03 281288.22 1162.8 287438.27 1155.61 287591.61 1092.82 292350.39 1099.26 298755.67 1161.06 303571.65 1258.05 304516.27 1299.03 310490.65 1298.3 313702.34 1440.22 316709.8 1641.3 322756.35 1672.21 324010.76 1612.73 327885.67 1658.64 331865.36 1752.42 332747.18 1837.99 337504.16 2099.29 345603.59 2675.47 351498.77 2786.33 358659.25 2881.07 364093.66 3183.98 367326.46 3841.27 369718.15 4109.65 377832.15 3820.7 383884.88

4471.03

19745.99 84118.57 22287.43 83805.9 19893.44 83556.43 19297.43 85815.57 19878.4 85603.64 19048.43 86780.37 19017.58 88627.14 19409.1 87982.23 19517.94 89125.33 20524.17 90439.05 20078.25 90782.48 20209.25 92387.13 21468.3 95970.82 24015.41 97079.03 22667.97 92814.95 21238.95 94743.19 21666.56 94593.72 20811.59 95802.01 20848.76 98601.25 21171.2 97674.1 21351.56 99377.7 22272.92 100964 21892.98 101751.98 22409.39 104125.78 24031.67 107278.76 29310.37 107250.68 24482.02 104357.08 23472.03 106737.08 24155.73 106389.11 23465.31 109219.21 23469.08 112342.36 23752.59 112653.04 25687.38 116814.1 24964.17 118359.97 25527.26 121644.96 27072.62 126035.13 27949.13 128484.06 30627.93 126258.08 27387.95 127881.31 27813.89 127678.34 26727.97 130275.8 26881.1 135847.41 27326.26

136237.43

33

Aug-07 106.5 106.2 106.5 106.9 Dec-07 106.5 107.1 108.7 108.3 Apr-08 108.5 107.7 107.1 106.3 Aug-08 104.9 104.6 104 102.4 Dec-08 101.2 101 98.4 98.8 Apr-09 98.5 98.6 98.3 98.2 Aug-09 98.8 99.2 99.5 99.4 Dec-09 101.9 101.5 102.7 102.4 Apr-10 102.8 103.1 102.9 103.3 Aug-10 103.5 103.6 104.4 105.1 Dec-10

104.6

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