区域农业干旱风险评估研究——以中国西南地区为例(4)

f e r e n t s t a n d a r d s o f i n d e x e s t o j u d g e d r o u g h t s e v e i r t i e s . he T s t a n d a r s d we r e r e l y i n g o n s e a s o n s, c r o p t y p e s a n dc r o p ro g wt h s ag t e s . Mo r e o v e r, we d e v e l o p e d a mo d e l or f e a c h t y p e o f c r o p s . T h i s mo d e l c o u l d b e u s e d t o c a l c u - l a t e is r k l o s s u n d e r d i fe r e n t s e v e it r i e s o fd ro u g h t . I n t h e n e x t s t e p, we i n t e ra g t e d is r k l o s s o f e a c h t y p e o f c r o p s t o a s s e s s he t r e g i o n a l ro d u g h t— i n d u c e d a g r i c u l t u r a l l o s s, b y we i g h t

i n g a v e r a g e a p p r o a c h . Us i n g he t a b o v e me h— t

o d we t o o k S o u hw t e s t C h na i a s a c a s e a r e a t o a s s e s s i t s s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a ro g— ro d u ht g i r s k . We ou f n d t h t a( 1 )f r o m he t r e s u l t s t e s t e d b y h i s t o i r c a l l o s s o f a ro g— d r o u g h t h a z rd a s i n r e c e n t 1 0 y e a r s ( 1 9 9 7— 2 0 0 6 )i n S o u t h -w e s t C h i n a, he t i r s k l o s s c a l c u l a t e d b y t h e mo d e l C n a r e v e a l he t l o s s d i f e r e n c e s b e t we e n a s s e s s me n t u n i t s; ( 2 )d i f e r e n t is r k r e g i o n s d i v i d e d b y he t c o mp o s i t e is r k i n d e x C a l l we l l r e l f e c t t h e d i fe r e n c e s o f s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n

n i S o u t h we s t C h i n a; ( 3 ) h i g h nd a e x t r e me i r s k a r e a s o f a g r o— d r o u g h t we r e p r i ma r i l y i n t h e p l a t e a u s a n d mo n- ur a i n s i n t h e we s t e r n nd a n o r t h e n r p a r t s o f he t r e g i o n, nd a s l i g h t a n d mo d e r a t e is r k l e v e l s we r e o b s e r v e d n i t h e e a s t e r n, c e n t r a l a n d s o u t h e r np a r t s o f S o u t h we s t C h i n a . Ke y

wo r d s: a g r o ro d u g h t is r k; c o n s e c u i t v e r a i n l e s s d a y s; s o u t h we s t C h i n a

本文引用格式：徐新创，葛全胜，郑景云，等.区域农业干旱风险评估研究：以中国西南地区为例.地理科学进展， 2 0 1 1, 3 O ( 7 ): 8 8 3 . 8 9 0