M13 Chap.11 An Introduction to International Finance
Chapter 11
An Introduction to International Finance
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Topics to be Covered Balance of payments Exchange rates Prices and exchange rates Interest and exchange rates Other topics
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Balance of Payments (BOP) BOP—a record of a country’s economic transactions with the rest of the world.
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Trade Surplus vs. Trade Deficit Trade surplus—occurs when a country’s merchandise exports exceed its imports. Trade deficit—occurs when a country’s merchandise imports exceed its exports. The U.S. has consistently experienced trade deficits, with 1975 as the last surplus year, while Japan, Germany, and Canada have had trade surpluses (refer to Figure 11.1).
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FIGURE 11.1 The Trade Balance over Time
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Exchange Rates Foreign Exchange Market (FEM)— the market where monies of different countries are traded. /wiki/File:Worldmap_ LandAndPolitical.jpg Exchange rate—price of one country’s money in terms of another.
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Features of Foreign Exchange Market Refer to Table 11.1 FEM Trading Volume The total volume of trade in the foreign exchange market was approximately $4 trillion in 2007. The largest markets are the U.K., accounting for 34% of the world market, and the U.S. with a 17% share.
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TABLE 11.1 Foreign Exchange Market Trading Volume
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Features of FEM (cont.) Refer to Table 11.2 The most traded currency is the U.S. dollar, accounting for 86% of the total amount traded. The dollar is followed by the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound.
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TABLE 11.2 Use of Currencies on One Side of the Transaction as a Percentage of Total Foreign-Exchange Market Volume
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Prices and Exchange Rates Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds when two currencies have the same purchasing power in the two countries. Chapter 14 will analyze the prices–exchange rate relationship in more detail.
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Big Mac PPP Refer to Table 11.3 Big Mac PPP If the price of a Big Mac hamburger was $1 in the U.S. and ¥100 in Japan and the ¥/$ exchange rate was 100, then the Big Mac PPP holds. PPP appears to hold more for Australia. China’s yuan is undervalued by 50% against the dollar; thus dollars will buy more in China. The reve
rse is true for Switzerland.11-12Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
TABLE 11.3 Big Mac Purchasing Power Parity
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Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Figure 11.2 shows that even countries with close and extensive economic ties can have independent movements in their interest rates. Interest differentials among countries may reflect expected exchange rate changes as well as risk premiums. Chapter 15 will discuss interest rates in more detail.11-14Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
FIGURE 11.2 Interest Rates Across Countries
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Additional Major Topics to be Covered Later Foreign exchange risk—the risk of an unexpected change in the exchange rate. International investment—portfolio investment and direct investment. International monetary systems— history of international financial systems.
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Additional Topics (cont.) International banking—offshore banking and country risk analysis International macroeconomics— determination of equilibrium income, interest rates, and exchange rates in a global setting.
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