高等学校研究生英语系列教程综合英语上册课文原文+翻译(13)

times more likely to be involved in a severe crash than is a middle-aged women.

同样，在星期天凌晨3点钟驾车的人比同一天上午10点钟驾车的人死亡风险高出100多倍，有人格障碍的人比一般人死亡风险高10倍。Similarly ,someone driving at 3:00a.m. Sunday is more than 100 times more likely to die than someone driving a 10:00a.m. Sunday. Someone with a personality disorder is 10 times more likely to die .

亚当斯说，假如这个人还喝醉了，汇总所有这些因素并分别加以考虑，就会得到一个具有统计性的预测：一位心理失常又喝醉酒的青年男子在午夜驾车，7个小时后一位头脑清醒的中年妇女驾车去教堂，前者发生严重交通事故的概率比后者高270万倍。And let?s say he?s also drunk . Tally up all these factors and consider them independently ,says Adams , and you could arrive at a statistical prediction that a disturbed, drunken young man driving in the middle of the night is 2.7 million times more likely to be involved in a serious accident than would a sober middle-aged women driving to church seven hours later.

6问题的要点就在于风险并不是孤立存在的，它会受到许多因素的影响，包括承担风险所带来的种种回报——无论是财产方面的、身体方面的，还是情感方面的。The bottom line is that risk doesn?t exist in a vacuum and that there are a host of factors that come into play ,including the rewards of risk, whether they are financial ,physical or emotional .

这正是风险赖以存在的真实的人类社会。亚当斯说，这才是问题的关键，正如他把近期的一篇博客题目定为《关键的是置人于死地的东西，而不是数字》。It is this very human context in which risk exists .That is key ,says Adams ,who titled one of his recent blogs ;What kills you matters -not numbers.

我们对风险的反应多半取决于它在多大程度上是自发的行为(如戴水肺潜水)、是不可避免的(如公共交通)、还是强加给我们的(如空气质量)；取决于我们认为在多大程度上是我们能控制的(如驾驶)或是由别人控制的(如乘飞机)；还取决于这种潜在危险在多大程度上是出于好意(如医生的指令)、无意的(如自然因素)或恶意的(如谋杀和恐怖活动)。Our reaction to risk very much depends on the degree to which it is voluntary (scuba diving ), unavoidable (public transit ) or imposed (air quality ), the degree to which we feel we are in control (driving )or at the mercy of others (plant travel ),and the degree to which the source of possible danger is benign (doctor?s orders), indifferent (nature)or malign(murder and terrorism). 我们每天要做几十遍风险计算，但是可以确信的是，多数时候人们对风险的计算自然而然或者说是出自本能，以至于我们几乎注意不到我们在做计算。We make dozens of risk calculations daily , but you can book odds that most of them are so automatic or visceral - that we barely notice them.

Unit Nine

住房危机走向郊区小 迈克尔·格伦沃尔德 在过去的五年里，弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯县的住房价格增长速度是家庭收入增长速度的12倍．In the past five years, housing prices in Fairfax county, Virginia have grown 12 times as fast as household incomes. Today, the county?s average family