International Finance-2011summer-Lec 9-International Monetar

国际货币与金融课件

International Finance 国际金融Lecture 9 International Monetary System-part2 国际货币体系

国际货币与金融课件

Topic Objectives International Monetary System Gold standard Bretton woods system Jamaica system

Suggested Readings : 英：Chapter 3 中：第一章 (18~19页)、第三章

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

Floating Exchange Rates 1973 to present

The Jamaica Agreement Demonetization of gold Diversity of Exchange Rate Regime– Recognition of the Floating Exchange Rate Regime

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

Classification of Exchange Rate Arrangements by IMF Exchange Arrangements with No Separate Legal Tender 放弃独立法定货币的汇率制度 Currency Board 货币局制度 Conventional Fixed Peg 通常的(传统的)固定盯住汇率制度 Pegged Exchange Rates within Horizontal Bands 水平波幅内的盯住汇率制度

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

Crawling Pegs 爬行盯住汇率制度 Exchange Rates within Crawling Bands 爬行波幅汇率制度 Managed Floating with No Preannounce Path for Exchange Rate 不事先宣布汇率轨迹的管理浮动汇率制度 Independent Floating 独立浮动汇率制度财政金融学院 杨柳 制作 5

2012-9-18

国际货币与金融课件

No Separate Legal Tender

Number of Member Countries and Regions 10

Currency Board Conventional Fixed Peg Pegged Exchange Rates within Horizontal Bands Crawling Pegs Crawling Bands Managed Floating Independent Floating2012-9-18

Increasing Flexibility

13 68 38 2 44

40制作 6

财政金融学院 杨柳

国际货币与金融课件

Floating vs Fixed Floating Exchange Rate Regime

the exchange rate is determined solely by market forces (i.e. demand and supply). Advocators: 詹姆斯· 米德 (James. Meade)、米尔顿· 弗里 德曼 (Milton Friedman) 、哈里· 约翰逊 (Harry G. Johnson)

Fixed Exchange Rate Regime

The exchange rate is either held constant or allowed to fluctuate only within very narrow band. Advocators: 克斯 (Ragnar Nurkse )、罗伯特· 蒙代尔 (Robert Mundell)、金德尔伯格 (Kinallelerger )财政金融学院 杨柳 制作 7

2012-9-18

国际货币与金融课件

Floating Exchange Rate Regime Pros #1: Monetary autonomy/ sovereign– each country can follow domestic macroeconomic policies independent of the policies of other countries. – can avoid ‘imported inflation’/输入性通胀

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

Country A

Country A wants to fix the exchange rate

Country B

Expansionary monetary policy (Money supply ↑) Inflation rate↑ price ↑ X↓M↑ BoP deficit Depreciation pressure on domestic currency2012-9-18财政金融学院 杨柳 制作

↓ Money supply Buy DC, Sell FX Gov’t Intervention9

国际货币与金融课件

Country A wants to fix the exchange rate Country A X↑ M↓ BoP surplus Appreciation pressure on domestic currency Gov. sell domestic currency Inflation rate↑ price ↑2012-9-18

Country B Expa

nsionary monetary policy Inflation rate↑ price ↑ X↓M↑ BoP deficit Domestic currency depreciation财政金融学院 杨柳 制作 10

Imported inflation

国际货币与金融课件

Pros #2: Government is not longer obliged to performFX market interventions.– Large stock of foreign reserves are not necessary. (saving opportunity cost) – Central bank interventions that may affect the economy unfavorably are no longer needed.

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

Cons #1: Exchange rate fluctuation.– Economic entities with open positions in FX are exposed to exchange rate risk.

Cons #2: Lack of international discipline on theinflationary policies.

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

The Choice of An Exchange Rate RegimeFixedsmall economy open economy harmonious inflation rate concentrated trade low capital mobility

Floatinglarge economy closed economy pergent inflation rate persified trade high capital mobility

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

“No single currencyregime is right for all currencies or at all time” by Jeffrey A. Frankel

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

The Jamaica Agreement (continued) Diversity of International Currency– U.S. Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen

Diversity of International Reserve Assets– U.S. Dollar, SDR and other major currencies.

Various Bop adjustment mechanism– Exchange rate, interest rate, IMF loan and international reserve.

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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国际货币与金融课件

Merits Flexibility, in terms of– International reserve currency – Exchange rate regime – Bop adjustment mechanism

Drawbacks Too flexible !!– An International Monetary Non-system

2012-9-18

财政金融学院 杨柳

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