Thinking Fast and Slow经典读后感10篇(6)

　　The fact that many of the important events that did occur involve choices further tempts you to exaggerate the role of skill and underestimate the part that luck played in the outcome.

　　You build the best possible story from the information available to you, and if it is a good story, you believe it.

　　Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.】

　　【BBBGGG GGGGGG BGBBGB Are the sequences equally likely？

　　We are pattern seekers, believers in a coherent world, in which regularities (such as a sequence of six girls) appear not by accident but as a result of mechanical causality or of someone’s intention. We do not expect to see regularity produced by a random process, and when we detect what appears to be a rule, we quickly reject the idea that the process is truly random.】

　　【Analysis of thousands of sequences of shots led to a disappointing conclusion: there is no such thing as a hot hand in professional basketball, either in shooting from the field or scoring from the foul line.】

　　而因果假设同样可能是一种生物学上的进化优势，它使我们的祖先能尽量避免危险。

　　3、光环效应（halo effect）

　　【A very generous estimate of the correlation between the success of the firm and the quality of its CEO might be as high as .30, indicating 30% overlap.

　　Make no mistake: improving the odds of success from 1:1 to 3:2 is a very significant advantage, both at the racetrack and in business. From the perspective of most business writers, however, a CEO who has so little control over performance would not be particularly impressive even if her firm did well.

　　ecause of the halo effect, we get the causal relationship backward: we are prone to believe that the firm fails because its CEO is rigid, when the truth is that the CEO appears to be rigid because the firm is failing.】

　　4、过度自信（over-confidence）

　　http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E8%BF%87%E5%BA%A6%E8%87%AA%E4%BF%A1%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA

　　【....participants who saw one-sided evidence were more confident of their judgments than those who saw both sides.....It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern......The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.】

　　5、框架效应（Framing effects）

　　【Different ways of presenting the same information often evoke different emotions.】

　　【Our preferences are about framed problems, and our moral intuitions are about deｓｃｒｉｐｔions, not about substance.】

　　【Italy and France competed in the 2006 final of the World Cup. The next two sentences both describe the outcome: “Italy won.” “France lost.” Do those statements have the same meaning？】

　　6、锚定效应（Anchoring effect）

　　7、Availability bias

　　媒体影响信念：【Strokes cause almost twice as many deaths as all accidents combined, but 80% of respondents judged accidental death to be more likely. Tornadoes were seen as more frequent killers than asthma, although the latter cause 20 times more deaths. Death by lightning was judged less likely than death from botulism even though it is 52 times more frequent. Death by disease is 18 times as likely as accidental death, but the two were judged about equally likely. Death by accidents was judged to be more than 300 times more likely than death by diabetes, but the true ratio is 1:4. The lesson is clear: estimates of causes of death are warped by media coverage. The coverage is itself biased toward novelty and poignancy. The media do not just shape what the public is interested in, but also are shaped by it.】

　　我们头脑中的世界并不是真实世界的复制品，它是经过流行的和情绪的强度的信息所扭曲了的。

　　【The world in our heads is not a precise replica of reality; our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages to which we are exposed.】

　　8、均值回归（ regression to the mean ）

　　【poor performance was typically followed by improvement and good performance by deterioration, without any help from either praise or punishment.....The more extreme the original score, the more regression we expect......When our attention is called to an event, associative memory will look for its cause—more precisely, activation will automatically spread to any cause that is already stored in memory. Causal explanations will be evoked when regression is detected, but they will be wrong because the truth is that regression to the mean has an explanation but does not have a cause.】

　　9、先知先觉（knew well before it happened）

　　【The core of the illusion is that we believe we understand the past, which implies that the future also should be knowable, but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do. Know is not the only word that fosters this illusion.A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or of any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.】 …… 此处隐藏：3154字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……