Thinking Fast and Slow经典读后感10篇(4)

　　The illusion is an anchoring effect. It occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity.

　　Dr. Kahneman explains that two different mechanisms produce anchoring effects—one for each system.

There is a form of anchoring that occurs in a deliberate process of adjustment, an operation of System 2. And there is anchoring that occurs by a priming effect, an automatic manifestation of System 1.

　　Read Brain: Loss Aversion

　　o how to read the brain？ It's imperfact, not so precise as you could imagine. The first step is realizing the limitation.

A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or of any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.

　　The next step is getting ready to accept some facts. One fact,by Bent Flyvbjerg, is that in highly efficient markets educated guesses are no more accurate than blind guesses.

　　In a paper titled “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth,” they showed that, on average, the most active traders had the poorest results, while the investors who traded the least earned the highest returns.

　　In another paper, titled “Boys Will Be Boys,” they showed that men acted on their useless ideas significantly more often than women, and that as a result women achieved better investment results than men.

　　Finally, for human beings, you just like winning and dislike losing—and you almost certainly dislike losing more than you like winning. It is shocking, but people have to admit IT'S TRUE!

　　In Economics, conventional indifference maps and Bernoulli’s representation of outcomes as states of wealth share a mistaken assumption: that your utility for a state of affairs depends only on that state and is not affected by your history.

　　How about loss？

The brains of humans and other animals contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news. By shaving a few hundredths of a second from the time needed to detect a predator, this circuit improves the animal’s odds of living long enough to reproduce.

　　Loss aversion refers to the relative strength of two motives: we are driven more strongly to avoid losses than to achieve gains. It's a powerful conservative force that favors minimal changes from the status quo in the lives of both institutions and individuals. This conservatism helps keep us stable in our neighborhood, our marriage, and our job; it is the gravitational force that holds our life together near the reference point.

　　The benefit of loss aversion is that exaggerated optimism protects individuals and organizations from the paralyzing effects of loss aversion; loss aversion protects them from the follies of overconfident optimism.

　　《Thinking Fast and Slow》读后感(九)：认知与决策

　　Kahneman（以下称 K ）的《思考，快与慢》探讨了林林总总的实验，对主流经济学的 理性人假设提出了行为经济学和心理学方向的新观点。传统的理性人定义意味着，1、人具有关于他所处环境的完备信息，2、能对其稳定偏好进行排序，3、具有无懈可击的逻辑推理和计算能力。理性人作为经济学的基础假说，在此之上建立了一般均衡理论等丰硕的成果。但对此的质疑也并未中断。

　　从方法论来说，一种学科的假说并不需要与事实相符，模型的目的是简化我们的世界而使我们理解这个世界成为可能，——毕竟，我们有了最完全的模型：这个世界。但是我们无法理解。——而被接受的假说，常常是相对完整地贴合/反映世界又不过份复杂以至难以扩展。而 K 对效用理论的修正在这点上是必要的。【Richer and more realistic assumptions do not suffice to make a theory successful. Scientists use theories as a bag of working tools, and they will not take on the burden of a heavier bag unless the new tools are very useful.】

　　整本书的观点在书的正文末尾做了简要的总结，本文据此分三部分：心理学的 HUMANS 和经济学的 ECOS 的效用理论，直觉的系统 1 和分析的系统 2 的认知理论，体验的自我和记忆的自我的理论。

　　一、效用理论—— prospect theory

　　在经济学中，效用理论有着既是规定决策逻辑也是描述决策方式的双重身份。而 K 认为 费希纳（Fechner）效用是财富的对数函数（边际递减）的说法与和伯努力（Bernoulli）大多数人的风险规避说法都犯了错：The longevity of the theory is all the more remarkable because it is seriously flawed.

　　1、因为对于效用来说，reference points 显然是重要的。一个失去了400万与得到了400万的人，即使现在的财富都是500万，其感受（效用）必然是不同的。

　　2、相对于获得而言，同等的失去会造成更大的痛苦。

　　3、在获利与损失同时存在的赌博中，对损失的厌恶会使人做出风险规避的决策。

　　4、在一个确定无疑的损失和一个可能的更大损失（但不至于对生活方式产生威胁）之间（如：失去 900 元与 90% 的可能性失去1000元），对损失敏感性的递减将使人成为风险偏好的。

　　这四点也是 prospect theory 的基本结论。学术化的阐述见 ： http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E5%89%8D%E6%99%AF%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA

　　K 的 prospect theory 解释了为什么价格上升影响比下降更大。而为什么对于穷人来说，禀赋效应（endowment effect，即对未拥有的商品的估价比拥有时要高）并不存在，由于在零点以下，小额的获得只是一种损失的减少。而穷人在获利和放弃之间并不是无差异的。他们所有的选择都在损失下进行：一种商品的购买以另一种商品的无法购买为结果。而在高尔夫里，没能打出小鸟球也只是失去的获利 (a foregone gain) 而非损失。 …… 此处隐藏：2460字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……