高盛高华证券--中国清洁能源-核能_2012年核电行业复苏将带来上行

2011年10月20日

中国：清洁能源：核能

证券研究报告

2012年核电行业复苏将带来上行空间；下调中国一重评级至中性 (摘要)

中国应会继续发展核电，并可能将建设更多的AP1000核电机组

在我们看来，中国可能将继续其核电发展规划，在此我们重申2015 年和2020 年 核电装机容量分别达到40GW和75GW的预测。我们预计中国将于2012年中期

前后重启新核电项目的审批。在我们看来，AP1000（第三代技术）是未来中国核电的发展方向，原因在于：1) 据报道其安全性和效率较前几代产品更高，2) 中国

核电设备出口计划中的CAP1400机组的技术即源于AP1000。我们认为中国一重将凭借其先发优势成为行业内主要的受益者。 新订单可能于2012年新项目审批重启后再度快速增长

我们对核电项目建设、新订单发放、产品交付的时间进程做了分析，得出如下结论：1) 新订单可能于2012年再度快速增长，2) 中国一重和二重重装充足的在手订单（金额累计为2012年预期收入的2-3倍）将支撑两家公司核电设备业务的强劲增长。我们对订单的情景分析亦表明两家公司（特别是二重重装）的2011-2012年预期核电设备业务收入和整体净利润面临的下行风险有限。

非核电设备业务的收入/盈利能力可能将触底

2010年以来，中国一重和二重重装的非核电设备业务收入/利润率都出现下降。我们预计拐点将很快来到，因为：1) 2010年新订单的强劲态势可能会带动收入回升以及规模效应上升，2) 一些业务的盈利能力可能已经低至不可持续的水平（如中国一重的冶金设备业务可能已经接近基于现金的盈亏平衡点）。而今年上半年二重重

装大部分业务的毛利率已经较2010年下半年的水平反弹。

下调中国一重的评级至中性；维持对二重重装的中性评级

我们将中国一重和二重重装的2011-2013年每股盈利预测平均下调了60%，并将基于市盈率的12个月目标价格的估值基础延展至2012年。我们将中国一重的评级从买入下调至中性，并将其目标价格下调至人民币3.6元。我们维持对二重重装的中性评级，但将其目标价格下调至人民币8.8元。相比二重重装，我们仍更看好中国一重，原因在于其行业地位领先且核电设备业务比重更高。主要推动因素：1) 新项目审批重启的时间早于预期；2) 盈利能力复苏强于预期。

*全文翻译将随后提供

陆天, CFA 执业证书编号: S1420510120010

+86(10)6627-3036 tian.lu@http://www.77cn.com.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司

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Table of contents

Changes to our ratings, target prices, and earnings estimates China will continue its nuclear development plan

AP1000: Future direction for China’s nuclear development New orders may rise again in 2012 after approval resumption Valuation: Still prefer CFH to Erzhong, though both rated Neutral CFH: Down to Neutral; potential turnaround in new orders/margins Erzhong: Maintain Neutral; potential dilution still an overhang Appendix: Construction progress of nuclear plants in China

All prices in this report are as of the market close of October 18, 2011. The author would like to thank Xi Wang for his contribution.

2 3 4 5 8 10 14 17 

Changes to our ratings, target prices, and earnings estimates

We downgrade China First Heavy (CFH) to Neutral from Buy. We cut our 2011E-2013E

EPS estimates by 65%-77%, incorporating 1H11 results that undershot expectations both in

revenues and margins. We cut our 12-month P/E-based target price by 52% to Rmb3.6 to reflect our lower EPS estimates, and roll forward our valuation basis into our 2012E target P/E multiple of 30X (from a 2011E target P/E of 28X).

We maintain our Neutral rating on China Erzhong (“Erzhong”). We cut our 2011E-2013E EPS estimates by 45%-58%, incorporating weak 1H11 results. We cut our 12-month P/E-based target price by 30% to Rmb8.8 to reflect our lower EPS estimates, and roll forward our

valuation basis into our 2012E target P/E multiple of 35X (from a 2011E target P/E of 38X).

Exhibit 1 summarizes changes to our ratings, target prices, and earnings estimates.

Exhibit 1: Changes to ratings, 12-month P/E-based target prices, and 2011-2013 EPS estimates

China Erzhong

601268.SS

Rmb 8.958.80(30%)(2%)Neutral

12.50Neutral

Notes: For important disclosures, please go to http://www.77cn.com.cn/research/hedge.html.Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.

We believe Wind consensus earnings estimates are too high for CFH (Exhibit 2), as they may

have assumed higher gross margins than we have.

Exhibit 2: Our new 2011E-2013E net profit estimates are generally below Wind consensus estimates

232427630

288442652

(19%)(4%)(3%)

China ErzhongRmb mn

Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.

China will continue its nuclear development plan

We reiterate our nuclear capacity forecast of 40GW for 2015E and 75GW for 2020E. We

believe China will continue its long-term nuclear development plan to persify energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. We therefore expect approvals to resume around mid-2012 after the implementation of the “National Nuclear Safety Plan” currently being drafted. Meanwhile, we see limited delays for nuclear projects under construction (both nuclear island and conventional island), as indicated by recent progress (Exhibit 3).

Recent positive signals from China’s nuclear industry include:

1) The second reactor of Ling’ao Station Phase II (2.5G) began commercial operation in August. 2) Construction of other projects (both nuclear island and conventional island), is progressing

well. 3) China finished its safety review for nuclear projects in operation and under construction in

August. 4) According to an August 31 21 Century Report article, the ex-head of the National Energy

Bureau, Mr. Zhang Guobao, expects all nuclear reactors under construction (with a total of 30GW by our …… 此处隐藏：31073字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……