基于剩余收益方法的公司价值评估

摘 要

公司作为人类社会的经济体，自从其创立以来，人们就在不断探索对其价值的衡量与评估。随着公司形式的发展演变，对公司价值的定义也在不断的发展。如何恰当地评估企业的价值一直是理财学所关注的。

公司价值评估，不仅表现在并购，投资过程中，而且伴随着公司形式的发展，往往还意味着公司治理结构的改善。以前的公司价值评估方法多以资产为计量的主体，而随着公司概念的发展与延伸，公司价值的内涵经历了从利润最大化到股东价值最大化等一系列变迁。伴随股份制公司的出现，所有权与经营权的分离，目前在实际的投资分析中，投资者更加关注公司的盈利能力和对股东利益的保护程度。而基于会计数据为评估主体的公司价值评估，常常是以资产计量为主，强调资产的安全性而不是未来的收益性，因此在以股东价值最大化为公司目标的现代企业中，公司价值评估更应该注重对公司未来盈利能力——即创值能力的评估，因为只有创值才是股东财富的真正来源。

本文的研究正是基于股东价值最大化的观点，在为股东创造价值概念的基础上，利用Ohlson在其1995年的文章中建立的剩余收益估价模型（Residual Income Valuation Model），以及在2002年张人骥教授对该模型的新发展，将创值这一抽象的概念通过基本的会计指标表示出来。基于剩余收益概念的公司价值评估法既综合了会计数据的客观性、可验性的优点，同时又满足了股东，或者是投资人对公司价值最大化的要求，并且最大程度的实现了股东和管理者目标一致性，最大限度地维护了股东的利益。

本文以万科为例，利用我国股票市场所公布的，经过审计的财务数据，从剩余收益的观点出发，结合剩余收益模型与会计比率分析方面的发展，根据我国证券市场发展的实际，对剩余收益模型中的财务指标做了适当的调整，分析了目标公司的创值能力，并利用历年的交易数据做了实证检验，最后根据评估结果做了投资分析。万科公司的案例分析证明了该方法的有效性。

正如公司概念的发展一样，公司价值评估方法也在不断的探索中，本文希望通过剩余收益的概念，从一个客观的角度，充分利用现有会计体系中的数据，对公司价值评估做出有益的探索。

关键词：公司价值；价值评估；剩余收益；创值；

Abstract

The corporation is the basic economic unit of a human society. Since its emergence, people have been persistently exploring the approaches to its valuation. With the forms of corporations evolving, accordingly, the definition of the valuation of a corporation constantly changes. Proper valuation of a corporation is a research subject, which has drawn substantial attention from researchers in the field of finance.

The value of a corporation is a crucial factor taken into consideration when mergence or investment occurs; moreover, with the evolution of the forms corporations take, the proper means of valuation often bring about improvement to corporate governance, as well.

The emergence of joint-stock corporations and the separation of ownership and management have urged investors to attach more importance to a company’s profitability and its protection for shareholders’ interests. However, the conventional approach to a company’s value, based on its fiscal data, usually quantifies assets of the company, emphasizing its safety rather than its profitability.

Therefore, when the value of modern corporations being assessed, the priority should be given to their future profitability—the evaluation of the value creation. For those corporations bearing the aim to maximize stockholder value, the value creation is truly the source of shareholders’ wealth.

This paper incorporates the theory of Residual Income and the analysis of existing accounting data of the DuPond System to express the abstract concept of value creation through basic financial ratios.

This valuation model is characterized by the following traits:

1) it reflects the objectivity and verifiability of accounting data;

2) it meets the shareholders' or investors' demand for the maximized value of a corporation;

3) meanwhile, to their most possible extent, the goals of shareholders and of management converge in the framework of this valuation model.

This paper employs the audited accounting data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange to analyze the value creation of Vanke Corporation, and the results have been empirically verified by the data of stock exchanges from 2002 through 2004, and based on the results, investment analysis has been conducted as well.

The concept of corporation is constantly evolving, and it is also the case with valuation models. Therefore, this paper makes a constructive attempt, utilizing the existing financial data and Residual Income Valuation theory, to explore the valuation of corporations from a relatively objective perspective, in hopes of contributing to the theory and practice in this field of study.

Key words: Valuation of Corporations, Residual Income Valuation, Value creation

目 录

中文摘要

英文摘要

第一章 绪 论........................................1

1.1公司概述..............................................................................................................1

1.2公司价值评估方法介绍......................................................................................1

1.3创值是公司价值的最好诠释..............................................................................4

1.4本文的主要工作..................................................................................................4

第二章 剩余收益评估公司的创值能力...................6

2.1创值概念..............................................................................................................6

2.2剩余收益的概念及发展......................................................................................7

2.3对我国上市公司的意义......................................................................................9

第三章 剩余收益评估模型............................11

3.1模型假设条件....................................................................................................11

3.2剩余收益估价模型的改进................................................................................13

3.3剩余收益估值法的意义............................ …… 此处隐藏：17712字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……