Long-Term Development Trend of China s Economy and Importanc

This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth andresources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of China s economicdevelopment trendwithin a given future period, by promoting a newparadigmof technologicaleconomy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.

16China & World Economy / 16-25, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2005

Long-Term Development Trend ofChinas Economy and Importance

of the Circular Economy

Wan You, Jianguo Qi *

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth andresources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of Chinadevelopment trend within a given future period, by promoting a new paradigm of technologicaleconomy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.

KeyWords: Chinas economy development trend circular economyIn 2003, Chinas economy grew at a rate of over 9 percent with per capita GDP hittingUS$ 1,090 for the first time, which means that Chinas economy and socialdevelopment have entered a high-growth cycle characterized by rapid structuralchanges. However, this round of high growth is based on resources and an ecologicalenvironment completely different from those of twenty five years ago. Based on ananalysis of the new features of future economic development in China, as well as theresource and environmental costs of economic growth, this paper aims to explore anew paradigm of technological economy circular economy, and finally draw ourconclusion.

* Wan You, PhD of Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. E-mail: youwanemail@http://www.77cn.com.cn; Jianguo Qi, professor and deputy director, Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. E-mail: jgqi@http://www.77cn.com.cn.

This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth andresources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of China s economicdevelopment trendwithin a given future period, by promoting a newparadigmof technologicaleconomy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.

Long-Term Development Trend of Chinaand Importance of the Circular Economy17I. The Features of Future Development

of Chinas Economy

1. Sustained high growth has internal impetus

This mainly represents in the following three aspects:

(1) The coming of the mass consumption epoch and multilayer consumption structurewill promote high economic growthIn terms of per capita income and industrial output structure, Chinas economy has enteredthe mass consumption epoch. The indicators are that per capita income level has satisfiedthe fundamental consumption of food, housing and clothing; automobiles have beenproduced on a large scale and entered ordinary families; household electrical applianceshave been rapidly popularized; consumption structures have begun to upgrade; domesticdemand has shown multiplayer trends of steady high growth, which are providing strongimpetus for economic growth.

(2) Sustained high growth of urbanization and rapid increase in productivity becomethe engine for high sustainable growth in domestic demand

China has entered the stage of accelerating urbanization, resulting in two shifts: one is themovement of rural population to cities, namely from the regions with low productivity tothose with high productivity; the other is the transfer of labor from the agricultural to thenon-agriculture sectors, namely from sectors of low productivity to those of highproductivity. Obviously these two shifts will enhance productivity, which will increasinglyimprove domestic demand and provide lasting power for economic growth.(3) The labor force supply and continuous world-wide supply of newtechnology will lead China to maintain the advantages of low cost and competitivestrength in the international marketThe unlimitednature of Chinas labor force, combined with internationalization ofadvanced science and technology supply will severely clash in the process ofindustrialization, resulting in the co-existence of a high growth of production and risingunemployment. To solve this intense contradiction needs sustainable rapid economicgrowth in order to provide more job opportunities.

2. Economic growth will be dominated by both heavy and

chemical industries, and new high-tech industries

Within a definite period of time, domestic investment and consumption will become themain forces for pushing demand on the heavy and chemical industries.

(1) Continuous high growth of investment demand will rapidly push development of the

This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth andresources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of China s economicdevelopment trendwithin a given future period, by promoting a newparadigmof technologicaleconomy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.

18Wan You, Jianguo Qi / 16-25, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2005

heavy and chemical industries.

First, urbanization and infrastructure construction will push investment growth rapidly.According to the statistics of the Ministry of Construction from Bulletin of Urban ConstructionStatistics, 2003, the proportion of Chinas urban infrastructure investment in the GDP hastaken an upward trend, with 2 percent in 1999, 2.1 percent in 2000, 2.6 percent in 2001, 3.1percent in 2002, and 3.5 percent in 2003. While urban construction investment is growingrapidly, cross-regional and trans-valley large and extra-large infrastructure constructioninvestment programs are increasing continuously. Second, rural infrastructure investmentwill also speed up gradually. In order to coordinate urban and rural development and providesupport for the development of Sannong), the statewill substantially increase the input …… 此处隐藏：27627字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……